US Institute Warns of Houthi Efforts to Control Bab al-Mandab Strait

The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) has issued a warning regarding efforts by Houthi militants to impose a maritime transit permit system in the Bab al-Mandab Strait, cautioning that such measures could enable the group to exert control over international shipping and leverage the strategic waterway for economic coercion.

In a recent report, the ISW stated that the establishment of a permit system for civilian vessels threatens the interests of the United States and its international partners. The institute warned that what began as a voluntary coordination process could evolve into a mandatory regime, allowing the group to dictate navigation through the strait and target vessels that refuse to comply with their directives.

The report highlights that the Houthi-controlled Humanitarian Operations Coordination Center has been issuing voluntary permits in recent months to reduce the risk of attacks on commercial ships. Reports indicate that some shipping companies have already begun coordinating with this center. However, the ISW draws parallels between this mechanism and the "Persian Gulf Strait Authority" established by Iran, noting that these actions risk transforming the waterway into a tool for extortion, similar to Iranian maneuvers in the Strait of Hormuz.

The institute identified three primary economic threats resulting from Iranian and Houthi control over these chokepoints: increased maritime insurance premiums, higher shipping expenditures, and the potential imposition of transit fees. These disruptions have already forced many international shipping companies to reroute vessels around Africa, leading to significantly longer transit times, higher fuel consumption, and increased maintenance costs.

Furthermore, the ISW emphasized that global shipping costs often remain elevated even after direct hostilities subside, as the persistent threat of renewed restrictions keeps insurance and operational risks high. Data cited in the report shows that the average cost of shipping a standard 40-foot container has surged significantly since early 2026, remaining well above previous levels due to the ongoing instability in the Red Sea and the Strait of Hormuz.

The report concludes that allowing non-state actors to impose control over international maritime corridors sets a dangerous precedent. By weaponizing military threats to achieve economic leverage, these groups create long-term burdens on global trade that extend far beyond immediate security concerns, necessitating a robust response to preserve the freedom of navigation.